U.S. Sees Crisis Between Netanyahu and His Extremist Coalition as Path to a Saudi Deal -
The prime minister finally got the meeting he wanted, after waiting for almost nine months. Benjamin Netanyahu met Joe Biden on Wednesday. This was on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York and not at the White House in Washington, but sometimes one has to make do with what one can get at a given moment. For the cameras, Biden and Netanyahu projected the long relationship they’ve had, that of old friends. In closed rooms, one may assume, they dealt with the real issues.
The U.S. president had to maneuver cautiously across three separate channels, tightly linked to each other: the effort to stymie Iran’s nuclear program, the attempt to reach a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and Saudi demands to achieve significant progress between Israel and the Palestinians, as a condition for reaching an agreement between the kingdom and Israel.
In the background is another issue, which Biden made sure to mention at the opening of the press conference, an issue that brought hundreds of Israeli and American Jewish demonstrators to protest outside the David Intercontinental Hotel, where the meeting took place. This was Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing to promote the constitutional upheaval in Israel, which the U.S. president totally rejects.
Biden hopes to achieve a breakthrough in the channel most important to him, the Saudi one. Netanyahu shares this hope, in the belief that an agreement will help him lower the flames in the domestic arena. It appears that Netanyahu, despite the constant warnings about the West’s feebleness in its negotiations with Iran, is restraining his own criticism of the administration on this issue, in order to focus on Saudi Arabia. What’s more troubling is that the administration is counting on Netanyahu to deliver a stamp of approval from Congress, including from the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, for steps that will be taken in any deal.
They include providing Saudi Arabia with advanced weapon systems, with the Saudis joining a defense alliance along the lines of NATO. They also include a particularly controversial step, with American approval for the launching of a civilian nuclear project on Saudi soil. Many security experts in Israel are worried by the possibility that the Saudis will get complete control over the cycle of fuel production, on their turf. The Americans would like to allay such concerns with a commitment to establish external monitoring.
Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, left, meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in April, 2023.Credit: Saudi Press Agency via Reuters
Netanyahu is worried by another issue. Yielding to Saudi demands for concessions to the Palestinians could bring down his government. The ultra-right wing of his government, headed by ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, is already signaling its intention to foil any such move. On Wednesday, they were joined by another 11 Likud lawmakers, who sent Netanyahu a letter aimed at keeping him from making such a move, demanding that he not tie normalization with the Saudis to any improvements for the Palestinians.
But herein lies an opportunity, at least as far as the Americans see it. It appears the U.S. administration is hoping a crisis with his extremist partners will push Netanyahu into an alternative coalition with Benny Gantz and the centrist camp, in a manner that would put the judicial overhaul in deep freeze. Gantz is being reserved, so far. For now, it’s hard to see how all the pieces can fall into place in a timeframe that would suit Netanyahu’s plans. Even after hearing Biden at the joint press conference with Netanyahu, it’s unclear what tone he took in a closed forum, and whether he intends to continue pressuring the prime minister to halt the controversial legislation. While Netanyahu was occupied with his overly long visit to the United States, things in Israel are at fever pitch. These are the volatile flashpoints: in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip there are clear signs of escalation, even in comparison to the tumultuous past few months. Over the last 24 hours alone, six Palestinians were killed in clashes with the IDF.
The most severe incident took place in Jenin refugee camp. An IDF contingent entered the camp again, to arrest an armed squad. The wanted men took shelter in a safe house, and the army took the unusual step of using an attack “kamikaze” drone, which exploded in the apartment, killing four Palestinians, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad activists. Dozens of other residents were injured in the explosion and in exchanges of fire with IDF soldiers, who were not harmed. In another incident, in the Jericho area, another Palestinian was killed. In the Gaza Strip, there were renewed demonstrations along the border fence, with one Palestinian killed, the sixth one to die.
The most worrisome development is in the Gaza Strip. There is no point in using evasive language: Hamas is not permitting these demonstrations or letting off steam, it stands behind them, albeit while keeping a safe distance. Hamas is stretching the rope in Gaza, as is Hezbollah on the Lebanese border and other groups are in the West Bank. They know the government will find it hard to take aggressive steps against them, given the internal crisis in Israel.